US dollar declines, metals see domestic market outperforms overseas market, alumina rises over 4%, SHFE gold falls for six consecutive sessions, European container shipping surges [SMM midday review]

SMM May 15 News:

Metal Market:

As of the midday close, nearly all domestic base metals rose, with SHFE zinc up 0.6%, SHFE aluminum up 0.77%, SHFE lead up 0.38%, SHFE copper down 0.34%, and SHFE tin up 0.23%. SHFE nickel rose slightly.

In addition, alumina rose 4.52%, lithium carbonate fell 0.86%, silicon metal fell 0.84%, and polysilicon fell 0.14%.

The ferrous metals series all rose, with iron ore up 0.89% and stainless steel up 0.12%. Rebar and HRC both rose less than 0.5%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose 0.91% and coke rose 0.44%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:38, most LME base metals declined. LME copper fell 0.71%, LME aluminum fell 0.38%. LME tin rose slightly, LME lead fell 0.58%, LME zinc fell 0.38%, and LME nickel fell 0.67%.

In the precious metals market, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.99% and COMEX silver fell 1.38%. Domestically, SHFE gold extended its decline from the previous five trading days, falling another 3.15%, and SHFE silver fell 2.67%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping index rose 9.38% to 1,798.1 points.

As of 11:38 on May 15, midday futures market movements for some contracts:

》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 15

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 25 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 160 yuan/mt to 140 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 150 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,840 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,715 yuan/mt, down 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: Guangdong's inventory ended its two-day decline and rose again, mainly due to weakened downstream consumption... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic:

[First RRR cut of the year implemented! Approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity released] The People's Bank of China recently announced that starting from May 15, it would lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding those already implementing a 5% RRR), and lower the RRR for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies by 5 percentage points. A 0.5 percentage point RRR cut is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the market. The reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies has been reduced from the original 5% to 0%, which will enhance the credit supply capabilities of these two types of institutions in specific sectors. 》Click to view details

[The People's Bank of China Conducts 64.5 Billion Yuan in 7-Day Reverse Repo Operations Today]The People's Bank of China conducted 64.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. Today, 158.6 billion yuan in reverse repos and 125 billion yuan in Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) loans matured.

►On May 15, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1963 RMB per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell by 0.25% to 100.82. US Fed policymakers are attempting to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs and trade negotiations on prices and the economy. So far, hard data has not provided them with much basis. Currently, market focus is on the US producer price index data to be released later today. After consumer price data fell short of expectations, the market is seeking further clues on the Fed's policy path. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year, starting in October.

Macro:

Today, the following data will be released: initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 10, the US New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index for May, the US New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index for the next six months' expectations for May, the US Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Index for May, the US PPI year-on-year rate for April, the US core PPI year-on-year rate for April, the US core retail sales month-on-month rate for April, the US retail sales year-on-year rate for April, the US retail sales control group month-on-month rate for April (seasonally adjusted) associated with GDP, the US industrial production month-on-month rate for April, the US capacity utilisation rate for April, the US manufacturing production month-on-month rate for April, the US industrial production year-on-year rate for April (seasonally adjusted), Australia's RBA foreign exchange transactions - market channel for April, Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April, Australia's change in employed population for April, the UK's GDP month-on-month rate for March, the UK's industrial production month-on-month rate for March, the UK's industrial production year-on-year rate for March, the UK's goods trade balance for March (seasonally adjusted), the UK's seasonally adjusted trade balance for March, the UK's preliminary annual GDP growth rate for Q1 using the production approach, Canada's manufacturing sales month-on-month rate for March, Canada's new orders month-on-month rate for manufacturing in March, the Eurozone's Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP quarter-on-quarter rate revision, the Eurozone's Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year rate revision, and other data.

In addition, Fed Chairman Powell delivered opening remarks at an event, and the Fed held the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, which will focus on research in monetary policy and economics. It is expected to provide an academic perspective for the Fed's monetary policy framework review, which is committed to being conducted every five years, and will last until the 16th. Mary Daly, the 2027 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, participated in a fireside chat.

Crude Oil:

As of 11:38, crude oil futures fell, with US crude oil down 2.42% and Brent crude oil down 2.28%. This was due to market expectations of a potential agreement between the US and Iran, coupled with an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories last week, which heightened investors' concerns about a supply surplus.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels for the week ending May 9, while a survey showed analysts had expected a decrease of 1.1 million barrels. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US crude oil inventories increased by 4.3 million barrels for the week ending May 9.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated in its monthly report that total crude oil production by all OPEC members fell by 106,000 barrels per day in April compared to March, despite eight OPEC oil-producing countries vowing to start easing production cuts. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market Overview:

►The price spread between futures contracts for delivery months remains significant, with spot trades remaining sluggish. [SMM South China Spot Copper]

►[SMM Weekly HRC Balance] Production has declined significantly, with HRC inventories experiencing a slight drawdown this week.

Updates on other metal spot market reviews will be available later. Please refresh to view.